3f Provisions for retirement, disability and post-mortem benefit obligations

The Group creates provisions for retirement, disability and post-mortem severance pay („severance”), in accordance with IAS 19. The provisions are calculated using the actuarial method of projected unit credit as at the date of valuation. The calculations take a number of factors into account, including macroeconomic conditions, employee turnover, risk of death and others. The basis for calculating the provision for employees is the anticipated value of severance pay which the Group is to pay pursuant from the Remuneration Regulations in force at the Group. The anticipated severance pay is calculated as the product of:

• the expected severance base, in accordance with the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement,
• the expected increase in the severance base from the moment of valuation until the payment of severance,
• the recommended proportional dependence on seniority (in accordance with the provisions of the Remuneration Regulations),
• gradual rights to services, unique for each team and proportional to their seniority at the Group.

The projected value is discounted actuarially at the end of the year. In accordance with the requirements of IAS 19, the financial discount rate for calculating the current value of liabilities related to employee benefits is determined on the basis of market yields on treasury bonds whose currency and maturity date are consistent with the currency and the estimated date of the benefit obligations. The actuarial discount is the product of the financial discount, the probability of a person’s continued employment at the Group until the severance is required, and the probability of the need for a particular benefit (e.g. the probability of acquiring a disability).

The value of annual write-offs and the probability are projected with the use of models which take the following three risks into account:

• possibility of dismissal from work,
• risk of inability to work,
• risk of death.

The possibility of dismissal from work is estimated trough a probability distribution, based on the Group’s statistical data. The likelihood of dismissal depends on the age of the employee and is constant throughout each year of work. The risks of death and disability were estimated based on analyses of the latest statistical data on life expectancy in Poland (for men and women) as well as historical data published by the Central Statistical Office and the Social Security Office.

Provisions resulting from actuarial valuation are updated annually, by an independent actuary. The underlying assumptions are revised at the end of each quarter, based on quarterly forecasts.

Sensitivity Analysis

The table below presents the impact on liabilities due to retirement, disability and posthumous severance that a 1% change (as at December 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018) in the relevant actuarial assumptions would have trigger.

Reconciliation of present value of retirement, disability and post-mortem benefit obligations

The table below presents the reconciliation from the beginning balances to the ending balances for present value liabilities due to retirement, disability and post-mortem benefit obligations: